The civil war in Syria began in 2011. However, the conflict has remained largely frozen since Turkey and Russia agreed to a ceasefire in 2020. That all changed when rebel forces—now led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—attacked and took control of the pivotal city of Aleppo last week.

At the time, the speed and success with which they regained their former stronghold surprised most, and it was generally unknown whether they would seek to consolidate their power there or continue to press further south.

That question was answered Thursday when HTS took the nation’s fourth-largest city, Hama, with similar ease.

The Syrian government’s official line was that their forces withdrew in order to “preserve the lives of civilians,” but it was relatively clear that the armies that had controlled the region since the start of the conflict were simply overwhelmed by the rebel forces. And their victory at Hama could prove even more important than taking Aleppo.

While Aleppo was a significant loss for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and meant a great deal symbolically to the rebel forces who lost the city in 2016, controlling Hama will make it much more difficult for the Syrian forces to retake any of the lands they’ve ceded over the last week. Moreover, Hama is also where Assad’s father killed tens of thousands who sought to enact a similar regime change in 1982 and where the current war began in 2011 after Assad was similarly forceful in putting an end to the protests against his reign.

For all his recent losses, Assad remains in a fairly secure position for the time being. Much would have to change for HTS to have a chance at taking Damascus, the Syrian capital.

However, should the rebels gain control of Homs—a major city roughly 25 miles south of Hama—that picture would look much different. And the reason why is relevant beyond the Syrian borders.

The Most Important Battle Is Yet to Come
HTS leadership has already pledged to continue their advance, so it would appear we won’t have to wait long to find out just how fragile Assad’s defenses truly are. But the primary reason the fate of Homs will be instructive for where the war goes from here has little to do with the Syrian army.

The civil war stopped being a fight primarily between Assad’s armies and those of the rebels fairly early on in the conflict. Rather, it served more as a proxy war with Russia and Iran on the Syrian side and Turkey on the other. That’s why the ceasefire between Russia and Turkey in 2020 was able to put a stop to the fighting between the other armies.

While Aleppo and, to an extent, Hama were important cities for Turkey’s plans, Homs is crucial to the way Russia operates within Syria. Should HTS take control of that region, they will potentially cut Damascus off from the Russian naval and air bases located near the Mediterranean Sea. Though such a loss would make it more difficult for the Syrian army to continue the fight, the message it would send regarding Russia’s commitment—or lack thereof—to Assad’s regime would be far more significant.

What happens at Homs is likely to offer the clearest indication yet as to whether the civil war in Syria is just heating back up or possibly coming to a close.

However, which of those outcomes would be preferable is not as apparent as you might think.

The Problem with Good Vs. Evil
On the one hand, the civil war has already resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions of people. From that perspective, an end to the conflict would obviously be better than the perpetuation of violence and destruction.

Yet, at least from the perspective of America and its closest ally, Israel, a Syrian government led by either Assad or HTS would appear to be problematic for the prospect of peace in the region.

It’s easy to recognize the issues posed by the Syrian side remaining in power, considering that they’ve used chemical weapons on civilians and are propped up by Russia and Iran. But assuming that automatically makes their opponents worth supporting is how you find yourself overlooking a history of “arbitrary detentions, executions of opponents and other human rights violations in HTS-controlled areas.”

While HTS has endeavored to change its global image in recent years, the group is still designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the UN. There is some reason to hope they would rule Syria differently than the Taliban is currently governing Afghanistan, but there’s perhaps more to indicate that the results would be similar.

All of that is why US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan recently said of HTS, “We have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization,” though he went on to add that “we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”

Many in Israel share that assessment. While they delight in seeing Iran and, to a lesser extent, Russia stretched thin, they also fear that HTS would stand against them should they gain power. At the moment, both share common enemies, but that is rarely the basis for a long-term alliance.

Ultimately, the situation is complicated, and, as is often the case in war, the sides don’t fit neatly into our preferred boxes of good vs. evil. And learning to accept that reality is important for reasons that extend far beyond the conflict in Syria.

Complex Truths or Simple Lies
Attempting to fit complicated issues into simple boxes is one of the most common reasons people stumble into error. After all, life often seems easier when it’s simple. However, settling for anything less than the truth will always leave you worse off in the end.

The need to see all wars as a battle between good and evil is among the most apparent ways people have made that mistake in our culture today. Whether it’s the fight between Russia and Ukraine, Syria and HTS, or many other global conflicts, war tends to bring out the worst in people, and that often plays out in how it’s waged.

But the need to accept complicated truths over simple lies is also essential when it comes to our personal beliefs.

The vast majority of heresies that have plagued the church throughout its history stem from the desire to fit our infinite God into boxes that our finite minds can fully comprehend. Yet the reality is that there are a number of truths we simply have to take on faith.

Now, God has revealed more than enough of himself to conclude that it is reasonable to take his truths on faith—he’s not looking for blind or unthinking faith. But there will still be some areas where we have to accept that our understanding will fall short of where we might like it to be. When that happens, how we choose to proceed will often determine how close we can walk with the Lord.

So whether it’s nations, people, or ideas, remember that the boxes through which we try to understand our world are often far too small to reflect reality. And while it won’t always be that way (1 Corinthians 13:12), learning to rely on God’s understanding to fill the gaps in our own is one of the best ways to draw closer to him.

Where do you need his understanding today?

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