As a potential deal for hostage release and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is on the horizon, many Israelis are grappling with a mix of hope and deep-seated distrust, knowing this agreement is far from a path to lasting...



It feels premature to write about the pending/proposed/possible deal that has reportedly been agreed to between Israel and Hamas with the US, Egypt, Qatar, and possibly others as intermediaries. It seems imminent that the deal will be implemented, but any number of terms, clauses, and understandings could be breached and blow the whole thing up. Israelis are praying and waiting with bated breath after two long years of finding it hard to breathe. As the Israeli government meets to discuss and vote upon the terms of the deal, at any moment, much of this could be old news, even irrelevant. Nevertheless, taking the pulse of the people who are most impacted is timely and important.

It's important to note that this is NOT a peace deal. Anyone suggesting that is wrong. It is a deal that, at its best, will see the 48 remaining hostages held in captivity for 734 days being released, Hamas disemboweled, disarmed, and removed from control in Gaza, and a foundation for rebuilding Gaza. But it will not bring peace. It will not change the hearts of two million Gazans who have been indoctrinated by extremist Islam for a century. It will not put the baseless accusations of genocide, ethnic cleansing, and war crimes by Israel back in the bottle. Those who seek to “Free Palestine” and eradicate Israel “from the river to the sea” will still seek to do so.

To achieve actual peace, a radical change of heart is necessary, as proposed in the Solution for Peace in Gaza. Short of that, there is zero indication of any reform of Palestinian Arab society that accepts to finally live in peace with Israel. Amid the rightful celebration and turning to God in prayer that’s pervasive across Israel, there’s also widespread awareness of Hamas’ psychological terror that’s begun, is taking its toll, which they have mastered over the past two years, and which could lead to dashed hopes.

As optimistic and hopeful as many Israelis are, there is awareness that we cannot trust Hamas. There’s a concern that even though the deal may say otherwise, not only will Hamas not disarm and ride off into the sunset quietly, there’s a risk that the deal still leaves them in control, at least to be a spoiler, terrorizing Gazans and Israel for the foreseeable future. If that’s true, who will then actually be willing and able to take up arms against Hamas? Egypt? Jordan? The Saudis? Turkey? The Palestinian Authority (PA), EU, NATO, or USA?

With a deal signed and defensive lines agreed to, will the world tolerate it if Israel is left alone, again, to have to take on Hamas in Gaza? One of the reasons that this is not a peace deal is that even if removed from influence in Gaza, Hamas retains strong pockets of control and support in many “West Bank” Judea and Samaria villages and cities. Their control there is not being hindered, and for a certainty will not be something that they relinquish. Rather, they will likely double down both to fight Israelis and also against the PA control, which they already successfully defeated in Gaza in 2007.

The “negotiators,” AKA Hamas enablers Qatar, Iran, and Turkey, cannot be trusted. The deal is not about them being reformed either. At best, they have been pressured to pressure Hamas for this immediate deal. They may derive some benefits from the Trump administration for serving this role, but they are the same extremist Islamic rejectionists that they were yesterday and two years ago.

Israelis have suffered two unspeakable years of trauma from the initial attack, massacre, and hostage taking – all war crimes by Hamas. Even though we may not always be able to articulate it, Israelis hope to be able to get to PTSD. Until now, we have been living with present traumatic stress disorder. An end to the current combat and release of the hostages can begin to get us to post-traumatic stress disorder and eventual healing. Until now, we have not even been able to think about that.

As events unfold on what will transpire in Gaza vis-à-vis the release of the hostages, a ceasefire, and Israeli withdrawal, it’s also essential to look at internal issues on both sides. Hamas will try to spin this as a win. The terror-sponsoring countries that have harbored, protected, and funded them – Iran, Qatar, and Turkey – are unlikely to have their own come-to-Jesus moment or decide to reform their ways, much less save millions by throwing good money after bad that they invested to create the Hamas-terror machine to begin with. Perhaps only severe US pressure, specifically considering that Qatar and Turkey are supposedly US allies, might make a difference. But it's unclear if Trump will turn the screws on them to really put Hamas out of business, or reform themselves.

It's clear that without the massive military assault on Hamas leaders and terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, with the threat of much more, we would not even be having this conversation now. This includes Israel’s strikes against Hamas leaders in Tehran and Doha. While not the “complete victory” that Netanyahu promised, Hamas has been defeated. Unlike Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, they will try to retain and reconstitute their control.

It is also clear that their Islamic ideology has not been eradicated and will not go away. In Israel, it’s likely that the current coalition government will fall. This is partly because Netanyahu is correctly accused of not taking responsibility for the failures that allowed the October 7 attack and massacre to begin with. Many Israelis recognize that even though he may also spin this as a win and even agree, the buck stops with him.

Economically, Israelis have only begun to feel the pinch in terms of the cost of this war, but we are far from realizing its full implications. While the shekel is at a three-year high against the dollar, suggesting economic confidence, the cost of the war will rest on the shoulders of Israelis for some time. As that becomes more burdensome, there will be political consequences as well.

However since elections were already going to take place in 2026, now it seems inevitable that at least some of the parties making up the current coalition will leave the government over disagreement with many of the deal’s terms, but also to distinguish themselves from other right and center-right parties and stake out their political turf among their voters, beginning to capitalize on the dissatisfaction, along with the 2026 campaign. Hopefully, whatever comes, as we hold our breath, maybe we will eventually be able to breathe again.

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