The SportsLine Projection Model's simulations on Detroit's season outlook after Skubal's injury may surprise you


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Losing your ace and two-time defending Cy Young winner is never good news. But the SportsLine Projection Model says the Detroit Tigers losing Tarik Skubal for an indefinite amount of time will have a minimal effect on their season.

On Monday, manager A.J. Hinch said Skubal has loose bodies in his left elbow, and will undergo surgery to remove those bodies and "miss some time." That would normally be a killer for any team, considering Skubal's success. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he went a combined 31-10 with a 2.30 ERA and won the American League Cy Young Award both years. This season he is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA.

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But the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, says there's no reason to bury Detroit.

The Tigers are currently 18-17 and tied with the Guardians for the lead in the AL Central. Had Skubal not been injured, the model had Detroit winning 85.2 games this season. With Skubal out until mid-July, which is the typical timeline for such a procedure, the model has the team winning 84.7 games, a difference of only 0.5.

The Tigers' chances to reach the playoffs and win the AL Central, ALCS and World Series also aren't significantly impacted, according to the model.

Detroit Projected wins Win division Reach playoffs Win AL Win World Series
Skubal healthy 85.2 50.1% 68.3% 12.8% 5.1%
Skubal out mid-July 84.7 48.3% 66.7% 12.6% 4.8%
Difference -0.5 -1.8% -1.6% -0.2% -0.3%

Both DraftKings and FanDuel have removed Skubal from its Cy Young odds board, but the platforms see Detroit's World Series odds differently. DraftKings listed the Tigers at +1800 to win the World Series prior to the Skubal news and did not change those odds after Monday's news.

Meanwhile, FanDuel has Detroit at a much more generous +2700 to lift the Commissioner's Trophy. The platform also still has the Tigers as the +160 favorite to win the division, slightly ahead of Cleveland (+175). Even if Skubal doesn't return until mid-July, the model gives Detroit a 48.3% chance to win the AL Central, which means the Tigers are value at +160 (implied odds of 38.5%).

Skubal was scheduled to start on Monday against the Red Sox, but now the Tigers will treat the contest as a bullpen game. Lefty Tyler Holton (0-1, 5.27 ERA) will serve as the opener.

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