Will Fred become tropical storm again? It's forecast to strengthen, with Florida in path



A disorganized and lopsided Tropical Depression Fred moved back into the water early Thursday after a trek through Hispaniola's mountainous terrain.

"The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred," the National Hurricane Center noted in an advisory. The storm's circulation has stretched out and seems to resemble more of a trough at its surface, with wind shear and dry air.

Forecasters aren't sure if Fred will reform. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate the system Thursday morning to estimate strength and structure.

The forecast still calls for Fred to regain tropical storm strength sometime Friday, ahead of expected landfall in the Florida Keys on Saturday. Another landfall is forecast for Florida's Big Bend or Panhandle late in the weekend or early next week.

The hurricane center predicts Fred will have maximum sustained winds near 45 mph when it nears the Keys.

However, there's still uncertainty over Fred's precise track and intensity. What forecasters do know is that Florida should brace for heavy rain and possible flooding, including along the east coast.

"Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches," National Hurricane Center Forecaster Jack Beven wrote in an 8 .m. advisory.

Where is Fred?

Located in the waters between Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas, Fred was moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts.

On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas Thursday and move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later Thursday and Friday, when it's expected to slow and gradually turn to the northwest and then toward the north, in the direction of the Florida Keys.

"There is uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico," the hurricane center reported

Fred is expected to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida Friday night and Saturday. After that, its strength will be determined by its interaction with land, according to the hurricane center.

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