A potential leak that preceded the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was "highly likely" the result of espionage, the Nobel Institute told Norwegian media on Saturday.

The odds of Machado winning the prize jumped from 3.75% to nearly 73% overnight, Thursday to Frida,y on the predictive betting platform Polymarket.

However, no expert or media outlet had mentioned her as being among the favorites for the prize, which was announced just a few hours later in Oslo.

"Highly likely it's espionage," the director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told Norway's TV2 television.

On Friday, the head of the Nobel committee said he didn't believe Machado's name had been leaked.

"I don't think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can't imagine that's the case," committee chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes told the NTB news agency.

Harpviken said the institute would nevertheless investigate and "where necessary, we will further tighten security".

Espionage "could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely," he said.

"It's too certain to say for sure, but it's no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage," he added.

"It is obvious that the institution is of interest to actors who want to acquire information, both states and other organizations," he said, adding: "The motives can be both political and economic."

"This has been going on for many decades."

Harpviken did not respond to AFP's requests for comment.

An extremely limited number of people know in advance the name of the laureate chosen by the five members of the Nobel Committee.

In the past, unexpected names of Nobel nominees have emerged in the Norwegian media, fuelling speculation about possible leaks. But this has not been the case in recent years.

Machado, an opposition leader barred from running in Venezuela's 2024 presidential election, was awarded "for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy", the committee said.

A video shared on social media showed Harpviken calling Machado on Friday morning to inform her that she had been chosen for the coveted prize. He is visibly emotional while sharing the news during a phone call with Machado before it was announced to the world.

"Oh my God. I have no words. Thank you so much," Machado can be heard saying during the call. "I hope you understand this is a movement, this is an achievement for a whole society. I am just one person; I certainly do not deserve this. Oh my God."

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